CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-12-31T10:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-12-31T10:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28405/-1
CME Note: CME NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery visible for about three frames in STEREO A COR2 imagery prior to a data gap starting at 2023-12-31T10:53Z, after which the CME is out of the field of view. The source is a large filament eruption spanning N35W30 to N20W65 which begins to lift off around 2023-12-30T09:40Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Post-eruptive loops begin to form around 12:30Z in SDO AIA 171 and 193 as well. Most of the eruptive material appears to originate from the more western side of the filament. A possible arrival signature is characterized by an amplication of magnetic field with Btotal increasing from 7nT at 2024-01-03T04:50Z to ~12nT, an increase in solar wind speed from 415 to ~480 km/s, as well as a significant jump in density to over 18 pp/cm^3 and and increase in temperature are also observed. There is a likely arrival of the same CME at STEREO A hours earlier, indicating a westerly event.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-03T04:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-03T20:33Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Message id="422" SIDC URSIGRAM 40101 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Jan 2024, 1233UT Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected at 09:48 UTC on December 31, in LASCO C2 data. This CME is associated with a filament eruption, observed at 09:38 UTC on December 31, in SDO/AIA 304 and 193 in the north-west quadrant of the visible solar disk... Further analysis is ongoing. SIDC URSIGRAM 40102 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Jan 2024, 1240UT Coronal mass ejections: No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)s, have been observed in the last 24 hours. Further analysis of the two CMEs seen in LASCO C2 data one at 09:48 UTC on December 31, with an estimated speed of around 500 km/s shows a possible glancing blow late on January 03.Lead Time: 18.53 hour(s)
Difference: -15.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2024-01-02T10:18Z
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